Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (96%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on November 15?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 3.6¢ · $113 held · ends Nov 15

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$112.81

Combined PnL

$357.15

Smart Money Entry

38.3¢ → 3.6¢

-91% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$90.3

Total Shares92

Combined PnL-$38.25

Yes6 traders

Total Value$22.51

Total Shares1,278

Combined PnL+$395.4

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Mature

35h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
EA Eager47259<$100	Noavg 94¢	$97.75	$52.34	-$37.49	48% 216-233 (449)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$28.91	$27.99	-$0.93	49% 844-877 (1721)
0X 0xDB5CTR<$100	Yesavg 28.9¢	$65.31	$19.03	-$36.28	71% 144-58 (202)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 98¢	$9.8	$9.97	+$0.17	42% 1683-2319 (4002)
TO TokorCTR	Yesavg 52.6¢	$396.42	$2.26	-$394.16	53% 147-132 (279)
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR	Yesavg 11.4¢	$2.0K	$0.96	+$848.2	67% 213-103 (316)
BU Burkilota1CTR<$100	Yesavg 26.5¢	$16	$0.18	-$15.82	65% 195-107 (302)
0X 0x90d4B0aA65D33FEFC7F978688A803260A5A82DeE-1775326496677CTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$6	$0.07	-$5.93	59% 27-19 (46)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.64	$0.02	-$0.62	40% 2673-3942 (6615)

Eager47259<$100

Invested

$97.75

Value

$52.34

PnL

-$37.49

Record

48%

216-233 (449)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$28.91

Value

$27.99

PnL

-$0.93

Record

49%

844-877 (1721)

0xDB5CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$65.31

Value

$19.03

PnL

-$36.28

Record

71%

144-58 (202)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$9.8

Value

$9.97

PnL

+$0.17

Record

42%

1683-2319 (4002)

TokorCTR

Yes

Invested

$396.42

Value

$2.26

PnL

-$394.16

Record

53%

147-132 (279)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,956.22

Value

$0.96

PnL

+$848.2

Record

67%

213-103 (316)

Burkilota1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$15.82

Record

65%

195-107 (302)

0x90d4B0aA65D33FEFC7F978688A803260A5A82DeE-1775326496677CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$5.93

Record

59%

27-19 (46)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.64

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.62

Record

40%

2673-3942 (6615)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Mature

35h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance4.9%

3.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1937.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

2037.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.