Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on November 14?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 60¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 14

Yes40¢No60¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$539.93

Smart Money Entry

35.9¢ → 60¢

+67% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes40%

No60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$606.75

Total Shares981

Combined PnL+$588.74

Yes3 traders

Total Value$236.33

Total Shares383

Combined PnL-$48.82

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 35.8¢	$2.6K	$602.66	+$601.31	69% 174-79 (253)
TO TokorCTR	Yesavg 67.6¢	$476.57	$197.08	-$37.03	53% 125-112 (237)
0X 0xDB5ARB<$100	Yesavg 46.3¢	$193.61	$158.26	+$168.32	73% 119-45 (164)
└ No leg	Noavg 17.3¢	$34.94	$121.52	+$96.71
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 46.3¢	$42.67	$36.75	+$71.61
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 81.3¢	$40.65	$31	-$9.65	44% 5036-6461 (11497)
0X 0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616CTR<$100	Yesavg 62.6¢	$13.33	$8.25	-$2.14	58% 34-25 (59)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 35.4¢	$1.83	$3.1	+$1.28	63% 714-428 (1142)
EA Eager47259<$100	Noavg 68¢	$48.66	$0.99	-$13.84	50% 182-185 (367)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$2,617.93

Value

$602.66

PnL

+$601.31

Record

69%

174-79 (253)

TokorCTR

Yes

Invested

$476.57

Value

$197.08

PnL

-$37.03

Record

53%

125-112 (237)

0xDB5ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$193.61

Value

$158.26

PnL

+$168.32

Record

73%

119-45 (164)

Both legs:

No$34.9417.3¢+$96.71

Yes$42.6746.3¢+$71.61

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.65

Value

$31

PnL

-$9.65

Record

44%

5036-6461 (11497)

0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.33

Value

$8.25

PnL

-$2.14

Record

58%

34-25 (59)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$1.83

Value

$3.1

PnL

+$1.28

Record

63%

714-428 (1142)

Eager47259<$100

Invested

$48.66

Value

$0.99

PnL

-$13.84

Record

50%

182-185 (367)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 60%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.6%

60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.