Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on November 12?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 67¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 12

Yes33¢No67¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$205.98

Smart Money Entry

87.5¢ → 67¢

-23% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes33%

No67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$331.52

Total Shares699

Combined PnL+$259

No4 traders

Total Value$183.9

Total Shares269

Combined PnL-$53.02

Yes — 43%No — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452ARB<$100	Noavg 89.8¢	$2.8K	$2.2K	-$140.68	67% 105-51 (156)
└ No leg	Noavg 89.8¢	$2.0K	$1.6K	-$592.32
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 15.4¢	$342.55	$654.3	+$451.65
0X 0xDB5CTR	Yesavg 10.9¢	$60.24	$261.32	+$201.08	74% 75-26 (101)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 87.8¢	$147.1	$96.66	-$22.45	65% 4172-2205 (6377)
Haradwaith<$100	Noavg 90.2¢	$90.2	$64	-$26.2	39% 66-105 (171)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.9¢	$7.91	$47.43	+$39.52	47% 4825-5515 (10340)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.37	$22.77	+$18.4	43% 2575-3401 (5976)
EA Eager47259<$100	Noavg 88.9¢	$22.23	$16	-$6.23	47% 102-115 (217)
0X 0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616<$100	Noavg 52.6¢	$5.39	$7.24	+$1.85	53% 16-14 (30)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452ARB<$100

Invested

$2,769.09

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$140.68

Record

67%

105-51 (156)

Both legs:

No$2,009.8689.8¢-$592.32

Yes$342.5515.4¢+$451.65

0xDB5CTR

Yes

Invested

$60.24

Value

$261.32

PnL

+$201.08

Record

74%

75-26 (101)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$147.1

Value

$96.66

PnL

-$22.45

Record

65%

4172-2205 (6377)

Haradwaith<$100

Invested

$90.2

Value

$64

PnL

-$26.2

Record

39%

66-105 (171)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.91

Value

$47.43

PnL

+$39.52

Record

47%

4825-5515 (10340)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.37

Value

$22.77

PnL

+$18.4

Record

43%

2575-3401 (5976)

Eager47259<$100

Invested

$22.23

Value

$16

PnL

-$6.23

Record

47%

102-115 (217)

0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616<$100

Invested

$5.39

Value

$7.24

PnL

+$1.85

Record

53%

16-14 (30)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 67%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.5%

67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.5¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.84

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.