Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on November 15?

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 82¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 15

Yes18¢No82¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$897.53

Smart Money Entry

43.4¢ → 82.3¢

+90% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes18%

No82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,609

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Yes6 traders

Total Value$24.5

Total Shares104

Combined PnL-$196.51

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 43.1¢	$2.0K	$1.3K	+$1.1K	69% 206-92 (298)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 61¢	$33.51	$10.13	-$1.2	65% 4340-2358 (6698)
0X 0xDB5CTR	Yesavg 59.7¢	$121.83	$9.54	-$36.22	72% 137-54 (191)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 64.1¢	$6.41	$7.65	+$1.25	31% 1081-2425 (3506)
BU Burkilota1CTR<$100	Yesavg 37.7¢	$8	$4.56	-$3.44	64% 188-106 (294)
0X 0x90d4B0aA65D33FEFC7F978688A803260A5A82DeE-1775326496677CTR<$100	Yesavg 36.8¢	$7.01	$4.1	-$2.91	56% 22-17 (39)
HO Hourglass<$100	Noavg 58.3¢	$3.46	$3.62	+$0.17	67% 20-10 (30)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.64	$2.75	+$2.11	42% 2644-3715 (6359)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.45	$1.96	+$1.5	49% 816-837 (1653)
TO TokorCTR	Yesavg 56.6¢	$686.98	$1.59	-$157.55	52% 135-126 (261)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$2,023.06

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

69%

206-92 (298)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$33.51

Value

$10.13

PnL

-$1.2

Record

65%

4340-2358 (6698)

0xDB5CTR

Yes

Invested

$121.83

Value

$9.54

PnL

-$36.22

Record

72%

137-54 (191)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$6.41

Value

$7.65

PnL

+$1.25

Record

31%

1081-2425 (3506)

Burkilota1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$4.56

PnL

-$3.44

Record

64%

188-106 (294)

0x90d4B0aA65D33FEFC7F978688A803260A5A82DeE-1775326496677CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.01

Value

$4.1

PnL

-$2.91

Record

56%

22-17 (39)

Hourglass<$100

Invested

$3.46

Value

$3.62

PnL

+$0.17

Record

67%

20-10 (30)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.64

Value

$2.75

PnL

+$2.11

Record

42%

2644-3715 (6359)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

$1.96

PnL

+$1.5

Record

49%

816-837 (1653)

TokorCTR

Yes

Invested

$686.98

Value

$1.59

PnL

-$157.55

Record

52%

135-126 (261)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.3%

82.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.