Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on November 14?

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (22%) · Yes at 64¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14

Yes64¢No36¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 22%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$192.58

Smart Money Entry

52.9¢ → 64¢

+21% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes64%

No36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,078

Combined PnL-$197.77

No7 traders

Total Value$607.49

Total Shares986

Combined PnL+$390.36

Yes — 22%No — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Yesavg 54.2¢	$4.0K	$1.5K	-$203.37	69% 182-81 (263)
TO TokorCTR	Noavg 74.6¢	$481.45	$478.6	-$2.85	53% 130-115 (245)
EA Eager47259CTR<$100	Noavg 77.4¢	$49.17	$47.14	-$2.03	49% 191-195 (386)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR	Noavg 57.4¢	$1.0K	$41.79	+$405.55	65% 4317-2330 (6647)
0X 0xDB5	Yesavg 21.7¢	$177.67	$28.69	+$5.6	71% 120-49 (169)
0X 0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616CTR<$100	Noavg 52.3¢	$44.79	$25.07	-$19.72	56% 34-27 (61)
HO HourglassCTR<$100	Noavg 51.3¢	$11.74	$9.2	-$2.54	— 10-4 (14)
0X 0x90d4B0aA65D33FEFC7F978688A803260A5A82DeE-1775326496677CTR<$100	Noavg 25¢	$16.58	$5.26	+$11.91	65% 17-9 (26)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 21¢	$0.4	$0.44	+$0.04	57% 703-522 (1225)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Yes

Invested

$4,027.46

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$203.37

Record

69%

182-81 (263)

TokorCTR

Invested

$481.45

Value

$478.6

PnL

-$2.85

Record

53%

130-115 (245)

Eager47259CTR<$100

Invested

$49.17

Value

$47.14

PnL

-$2.03

Record

49%

191-195 (386)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR

Invested

$1,024.07

Value

$41.79

PnL

+$405.55

Record

65%

4317-2330 (6647)

0xDB5

Yes

Invested

$177.67

Value

$28.69

PnL

+$5.6

Record

71%

120-49 (169)

0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616CTR<$100

Invested

$44.79

Value

$25.07

PnL

-$19.72

Record

56%

34-27 (61)

HourglassCTR<$100

Invested

$11.74

Value

$9.2

PnL

-$2.54

Record

—

10-4 (14)

0x90d4B0aA65D33FEFC7F978688A803260A5A82DeE-1775326496677CTR<$100

Invested

$16.58

Value

$5.26

PnL

+$11.91

Record

65%

17-9 (26)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$0.4

Value

$0.44

PnL

+$0.04

Record

57%

703-522 (1225)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 64%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.6¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.17

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.