Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $72,000 on November 5?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 99¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$2.7K
$60.19
95.8¢ → 99.2¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-7 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
37h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 97.2¢ | $2.5K | $2.6K | +$71 | 65% 3039-1616 (4655) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $324.29 | $103.58 | +$6.2 | 59% 2806-1923 (4729) |
E4 e46m3<$100 | Noavg 17.4¢ | $50.79 | $50.3 | +$0.06 | 67% 27459-13813 (41272) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $10.67 | $0.59 | -$10.07 | 60% 1446-949 (2395) |
19 196874353278CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.9¢ | $7.39 | $0.38 | -$7.01 | 39% 319-489 (808) |
Invested
$2,509.36
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$71
Record
65%
3039-1616 (4655)
Invested
$324.29
Value
$103.58
PnL
+$6.2
Record
59%
2806-1923 (4729)
Invested
$50.79
Value
$50.3
PnL
+$0.06
Record
67%
27459-13813 (41272)
Invested
$10.67
Value
$0.59
PnL
-$10.07
Record
60%
1446-949 (2395)
Invested
$7.39
Value
$0.38
PnL
-$7.01
Record
39%
319-489 (808)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.