Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on October 30?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 100¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
$5.0K
-$5.5
98¢ → 99.5¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 98¢ | $4.6K | $4.6K | +$69.52 | 65% 2368-1272 (3640) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Noavg 98.5¢ | $394 | $398 | -$23.6 | 60% 1039-705 (1744) |
0X 0xDB5CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $86.99 | $8.09 | -$51.42 | 59% 2174-1533 (3707) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.