Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on November 5?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 95¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$4.2K
$114.8
91.7¢ → 95¢
+4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 91.9¢ | $3.4K | $3.5K | +$103 | 65% 2862-1519 (4381) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 83.9¢ | $341.18 | $365.26 | +$24.08 | 60% 2654-1796 (4450) |
12 123987456 | Noavg 98.3¢ | $197 | $179.57 | -$14.1 | 44% 2233-2896 (5129) |
 Haradwaith | Noavg 97.4¢ | $104.89 | $99.99 | -$4.9 | 41% 6394-9370 (15764) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $50.69 | $54.82 | +$4.13 | 53% 29752-26614 (56366) |
19 196874353278<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $27.25 | $24.73 | +$1.01 | 40% 313-479 (792) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $19.51 | $21.1 | +$1.59 | 72% 14222-5519 (19741) |
Invested
$3,399.41
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$103
Record
65%
2862-1519 (4381)
Invested
$341.18
Value
$365.26
PnL
+$24.08
Record
60%
2654-1796 (4450)
Invested
$197
Value
$179.57
PnL
-$14.1
Record
44%
2233-2896 (5129)
HaradwaithInvested
$104.89
Value
$99.99
PnL
-$4.9
Record
41%
6394-9370 (15764)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$50.69
Value
$54.82
PnL
+$4.13
Record
53%
29752-26614 (56366)
Invested
$27.25
Value
$24.73
PnL
+$1.01
Record
40%
313-479 (792)
Invested
$19.51
Value
$21.1
PnL
+$1.59
Record
72%
14222-5519 (19741)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.