Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 31?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$4.2K
-$138.24
91.6¢ → 99.1¢
+8% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Noavg 98.6¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | +$6.9 | 59% 1058-727 (1785) |
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 83.3¢ | $1.7K | $1.6K | -$97.05 | 65% 2415-1283 (3698) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 89¢ | $352.68 | $416.85 | +$64.17 | 59% 2201-1553 (3754) |
 balthazar | Noavg 99¢ | $396.1 | $316 | -$80.1 | 61% 21044-13396 (34440) |
12 123987456 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $158.56 | $126.4 | -$32.16 | 45% 1862-2292 (4154) |
Invested
$1,759.27
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$6.9
Record
59%
1058-727 (1785)
Invested
$1,675.61
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$97.05
Record
65%
2415-1283 (3698)
Invested
$352.68
Value
$416.85
PnL
+$64.17
Record
59%
2201-1553 (3754)
balthazarInvested
$396.1
Value
$316
PnL
-$80.1
Record
61%
21044-13396 (34440)
Invested
$158.56
Value
$126.4
PnL
-$32.16
Record
45%
1862-2292 (4154)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.