Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 28?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 97¢ · $47K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 40%
$46.7K
$18.0K
69.3¢ → 97¢
+40% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Yesavg 69.3¢ | $23.4K | $31.6K | +$8.2K | 65% 2335-1260 (3595) |
TO TokorCTR | Noavg 29.5¢ | $4.9K | $13.9K | +$9.1K | 64% 749-428 (1177) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394CTR | Noavg 33.6¢ | $1.3K | $1.0K | +$1.0K | 59% 1008-698 (1706) |
0X 0xDB5 | Yesavg 67.8¢ | $952.74 | $100.53 | -$318 | 59% 2150-1512 (3662) |
YO YouSayUpISayDownCTR<$100 | Noavg 14¢ | $1.68 | $10.14 | +$8.46 | 53% 3679-3199 (6878) |
Invested
$23,442.57
Value
$31.6K
PnL
+$8.2K
Record
65%
2335-1260 (3595)
Invested
$4,859.84
Value
$13.9K
PnL
+$9.1K
Record
64%
749-428 (1177)
Invested
$1,331.22
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$1.0K
Record
59%
1008-698 (1706)
Invested
$952.74
Value
$100.53
PnL
-$318
Record
59%
2150-1512 (3662)
Invested
$1.68
Value
$10.14
PnL
+$8.46
Record
53%
3679-3199 (6878)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.