Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on October 27?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 56¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$5.6K
-$322.68
70.9¢ → 56.2¢
-21% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452ARB<$100 | Yesavg 40.8¢ | $3.5K | $4.0K | +$465.3 | 65% 2315-1255 (3570) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 40.8¢ | $2.0K | $2.1K | +$144.65 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 46.7¢ | $1.6K | $1.9K | +$320.65 | |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Noavg 74.6¢ | $2.0K | $1.4K | -$390.2 | 59% 998-690 (1688) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 43.6¢ | $155.63 | $211.68 | +$56.05 | 59% 2136-1503 (3639) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 63.1¢ | $31.96 | $38.42 | +$6.46 | 61% 20507-12858 (33365) |
YO YouSayUpISayDown<$100 | Noavg 40¢ | $5.6 | $10.62 | +$5.02 | 54% 3673-3178 (6851) |
Invested
$3,543.77
Value
$4.0K
PnL
+$465.3
Record
65%
2315-1255 (3570)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,968.41
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$390.2
Record
59%
998-690 (1688)
Invested
$155.63
Value
$211.68
PnL
+$56.05
Record
59%
2136-1503 (3639)
balthazar<$100Invested
$31.96
Value
$38.42
PnL
+$6.46
Record
61%
20507-12858 (33365)
Invested
$5.6
Value
$10.62
PnL
+$5.02
Record
54%
3673-3178 (6851)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.