Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on November 11?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$1.1K
$21.43
97.6¢ → 99.5¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 97.5¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$21.13 | 65% 60-33 (93) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 98.4¢ | $29.52 | $29.85 | +$0.33 | 51% 4654-4528 (9182) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $5.11 | $5.09 | -$0.02 | 43% 387-516 (903) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $4.99 | $4.98 | -$0.02 | 37% 3204-5379 (8583) |
Invested
$1,042.01
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$21.13
Record
65%
60-33 (93)
balthazar<$100Invested
$29.52
Value
$29.85
PnL
+$0.33
Record
51%
4654-4528 (9182)
Invested
$5.11
Value
$5.09
PnL
-$0.02
Record
43%
387-516 (903)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$4.99
Value
$4.98
PnL
-$0.02
Record
37%
3204-5379 (8583)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.