Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (62%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on October 30?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 38¢ · $12K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$11.8K
-$191.15
64.6¢ → 37.8¢
-42% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 38%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452ARB<$100 | Noavg 79.8¢ | $11.8K | $10.7K | $-1.1K | 65% 2397-1278 (3675) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 40.8¢ | $4.8K | $7.4K | +$2.5K | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 79.8¢ | $7.0K | $3.3K | $-3.7K | |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394CTR | Noavg 74.3¢ | $653.2 | $604.8 | -$48.4 | 59% 1047-717 (1764) |
0X 0xDB5CTR | Noavg 52.3¢ | $605.13 | $455.76 | -$142.75 | 59% 2192-1542 (3734) |
YO YouSayUpISayDownCTR<$100 | Noavg 37.8¢ | $19.66 | $19.66 | +$0 | 53% 3701-3218 (6919) |
Invested
$11,797.88
Value
$10.7K
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
65%
2397-1278 (3675)
Both legs:
Invested
$653.2
Value
$604.8
PnL
-$48.4
Record
59%
1047-717 (1764)
Invested
$605.13
Value
$455.76
PnL
-$142.75
Record
59%
2192-1542 (3734)
Invested
$19.66
Value
$19.66
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
3701-3218 (6919)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
37.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.