Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on October 29?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$4.6K
$291.97
94.8¢ → 99¢
+4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA Marioy | Noavg 96.4¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$50.74 | 81% 236-56 (292) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 98.7¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$4.01 | 59% 2163-1516 (3679) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Noavg 87.6¢ | $2.1K | $1.2K | +$237.22 | 59% 1023-702 (1725) |
12 123987456<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $39.6 | $39.6 | +$0 | 45% 1824-2267 (4091) |
Invested
$2,000
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$50.74
Record
81%
236-56 (292)
Invested
$1,354.42
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$4.01
Record
59%
2163-1516 (3679)
Invested
$2,126.8
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$237.22
Record
59%
1023-702 (1725)
Invested
$39.6
Value
$39.6
PnL
+$0
Record
45%
1824-2267 (4091)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.