Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on November 11?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 99¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$5.3K
$35.09
98.4¢ → 99.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KupaKeepKlan | Noavg 99.6¢ | $3.1K | $3.1K | -$25.12 | 100% 45-0 (45) |
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 96.6¢ | $2.0K | $2.1K | +$57.81 | 65% 60-33 (93) |
 Haradwaith | Noavg 97¢ | $194.21 | $92.52 | +$3.02 | 51% 40-38 (78) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $5.11 | $5.07 | -$0.04 | 45% 378-468 (846) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 97.7¢ | $4.89 | $4.98 | +$0.09 | 37% 3204-5379 (8583) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $2.65 | $1.98 | -$0.67 | 51% 4655-4529 (9184) |
KupaKeepKlanInvested
$3,099.2
Value
$3.1K
PnL
-$25.12
Record
100%
45-0 (45)
Invested
$2,029.65
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$57.81
Record
65%
60-33 (93)
HaradwaithInvested
$194.21
Value
$92.52
PnL
+$3.02
Record
51%
40-38 (78)
Invested
$5.11
Value
$5.07
PnL
-$0.04
Record
45%
378-468 (846)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$4.89
Value
$4.98
PnL
+$0.09
Record
37%
3204-5379 (8583)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$2.65
Value
$1.98
PnL
-$0.67
Record
51%
4655-4529 (9184)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.