Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on November 11?

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 98¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 11

Yes98¢No2¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

-$824.35

Smart Money Entry

76.4¢ → 98¢

+28% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes98%

No2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares3,395

Combined PnL-$789.27

No6 traders

Total Value$11.26

Total Shares182

Combined PnL-$35.08

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 71% · 7

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Yesavg 76.5¢	$4.1K	$3.2K	-$813.24	65% 60-33 (93)
balthazar	Yesavg 74.6¢	$78.39	$101.98	+$23.59	51% 4670-4532 (9202)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Yesavg 78¢	$10.66	$11.04	+$0.38	47% 368-407 (775)
0X 0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616CTR<$100	Noavg 60.7¢	$27.31	$3.6	-$23.71	— 8-10 (18)
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100	Noavg 8¢	$2.4	$3.6	+$1.2	40% 1457-2158 (3615)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 13.1¢	$11.19	$1.71	-$9.49	44% 401-519 (920)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 8¢	$0.89	$1.33	+$0.44	43% 386-510 (896)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 28¢	$1.45	$0.62	-$0.83	45% 391-471 (862)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 62¢	$3.1	$0.4	-$2.7	37% 3224-5382 (8606)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Yes

Invested

$4,091.79

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$813.24

Record

65%

60-33 (93)

balthazar

Yes

Invested

$78.39

Value

$101.98

PnL

+$23.59

Record

51%

4670-4532 (9202)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.66

Value

$11.04

PnL

+$0.38

Record

47%

368-407 (775)

0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616CTR<$100

Invested

$27.31

Value

$3.6

PnL

-$23.71

Record

—

8-10 (18)

haveagooddayCTR<$100

Invested

$2.4

Value

$3.6

PnL

+$1.2

Record

40%

1457-2158 (3615)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$11.19

Value

$1.71

PnL

-$9.49

Record

44%

401-519 (920)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$0.89

Value

$1.33

PnL

+$0.44

Record

43%

386-510 (896)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$1.45

Value

$0.62

PnL

-$0.83

Record

45%

391-471 (862)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$3.1

Value

$0.4

PnL

-$2.7

Record

37%

3224-5382 (8606)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 71% · 7

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.1%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.