Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on November 15?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 100¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 44%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$36.97

Smart Money Entry

98¢ → 100¢

+2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares3,130

Combined PnL+$54.31

Yes5 traders

Total Value$0.84

Total Shares343

Combined PnL-$17.34

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-23 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 97.9¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$53.86	68% 208-97 (305)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$39.96	$39.98	+$0.02	33% 286-585 (871)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$31.51	$31.94	+$0.43	32% 76-160 (236)
HO Hourglass<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$9.98	$9.98	+$0	67% 20-10 (30)
EA Eager47259CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$1.41	$0.46	-$0.29	48% 209-222 (431)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.18	$0.2	-$6.98	49% 849-871 (1720)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.54	$0.12	-$4.41	28% 1057-2761 (3818)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.73	$0.05	-$1.68	42% 2644-3715 (6359)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$35.62	$0.01	-$3.96	28% 3241-8219 (11460)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$2,987.71

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$53.86

Record

68%

208-97 (305)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$39.96

Value

$39.98

PnL

+$0.02

Record

33%

286-585 (871)

123987456<$100

Invested

$31.51

Value

$31.94

PnL

+$0.43

Record

32%

76-160 (236)

Hourglass<$100

Invested

$9.98

Value

$9.98

PnL

+$0

Record

67%

20-10 (30)

Eager47259CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.41

Value

$0.46

PnL

-$0.29

Record

48%

209-222 (431)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.18

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$6.98

Record

49%

849-871 (1720)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.54

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$4.41

Record

28%

1057-2761 (3818)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.73

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$1.68

Record

42%

2644-3715 (6359)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.62

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$3.96

Record

28%

3241-8219 (11460)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-23 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.