Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on November 12?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 97¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 12

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.0K

Combined PnL

$4.8K

Smart Money Entry

44.5¢ → 97¢

+118% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$9.7K

Total Shares10,363

Combined PnL+$4.8K

Yes3 traders

Total Value$10.99

Total Shares51

Combined PnL+$6.61

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 45.2¢	$8.7K	$9.4K	+$4.8K	67% 109-54 (163)
0X 0xDB5ARB<$100	Yesavg 64¢	$768.2	$275.91	-$186.46	73% 76-28 (104)
└ No leg	Noavg 57.5¢	$146.44	$218.93	+$84.84
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 64¢	$260.48	$56.98	-$271.3
0X 0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616	Noavg 30.7¢	$203.52	$218.67	+$15.16	52% 16-15 (31)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 84.4¢	$37.03	$38.58	+$1.55	47% 4825-5517 (10342)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 87.1¢	$11.58	$11.97	+$0.39	62% 472-292 (764)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.37	$8.15	+$4.78	38% 66-109 (175)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.09	$2.65	+$1.55	43% 2575-3401 (5976)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 92¢	$1.94	$1.54	-$0.4	47% 546-625 (1171)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8.99	$0.19	+$0.28	45% 522-645 (1167)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$8,687.11

Value

$9.4K

PnL

+$4.8K

Record

67%

109-54 (163)

0xDB5ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$768.2

Value

$275.91

PnL

-$186.46

Record

73%

76-28 (104)

Both legs:

No$146.4457.5¢+$84.84

Yes$260.4864¢-$271.3

0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616

Invested

$203.52

Value

$218.67

PnL

+$15.16

Record

52%

16-15 (31)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$37.03

Value

$38.58

PnL

+$1.55

Record

47%

4825-5517 (10342)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$11.58

Value

$11.97

PnL

+$0.39

Record

62%

472-292 (764)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.37

Value

$8.15

PnL

+$4.78

Record

38%

66-109 (175)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.09

Value

$2.65

PnL

+$1.55

Record

43%

2575-3401 (5976)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$1.94

Value

$1.54

PnL

-$0.4

Record

47%

546-625 (1171)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.99

Value

$0.19

PnL

+$0.28

Record

45%

522-645 (1167)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.1%

97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.