Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on November 15?

14 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (93%) · No at 99¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 93%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$288.9

Smart Money Entry

98.2¢ → 99.3¢

+1% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 15 top traders (93%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,358

Combined PnL+$289.52

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.02

Total Shares7

Combined PnL-$0.62

No — 93%Yes — 7%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 97.8¢	$2.6K	$615.07	+$314.35	69% 206-92 (298)
balthazar	Noavg 99.5¢	$721.18	$284.67	-$31.62	43% 5129-6814 (11943)
12 123987456	Noavg 98¢	$161.21	$163.02	+$1.81	32% 75-160 (235)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$49.71	$49.56	-$0.15	33% 309-636 (945)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$39.84	$39.88	+$0.04	31% 1081-2425 (3506)
0X 0xDB5<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$37.04	$36.38	-$0.66	72% 137-54 (191)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$44.64	$34.58	-$0.97	28% 3233-8195 (11428)
EA Eager47259<$100	Noavg 87.8¢	$49.5	$32.07	+$6.04	48% 204-219 (423)
HO Hourglass<$100	Noavg 95.4¢	$20.04	$20.81	+$0.78	67% 20-10 (30)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$20.24	$20.18	-$0.06	50% 780-769 (1549)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$16.71	$16.73	+$0.02	46% 1157-1347 (2504)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$15.94	$15.89	-$0.05	25% 730-2139 (2869)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$13.18	$13.19	+$0.01	58% 787-561 (1348)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$3.98	$3.97	-$0.01	58% 765-561 (1326)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.64	$0.02	-$0.62	42% 2644-3715 (6359)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$2,634.51

Value

$615.07

PnL

+$314.35

Record

69%

206-92 (298)

balthazar

Invested

$721.18

Value

$284.67

PnL

-$31.62

Record

43%

5129-6814 (11943)

123987456

Invested

$161.21

Value

$163.02

PnL

+$1.81

Record

32%

75-160 (235)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$49.71

Value

$49.56

PnL

-$0.15

Record

33%

309-636 (945)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$39.84

Value

$39.88

PnL

+$0.04

Record

31%

1081-2425 (3506)

0xDB5<$100

Invested

$37.04

Value

$36.38

PnL

-$0.66

Record

72%

137-54 (191)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$44.64

Value

$34.58

PnL

-$0.97

Record

28%

3233-8195 (11428)

Eager47259<$100

Invested

$49.5

Value

$32.07

PnL

+$6.04

Record

48%

204-219 (423)

Hourglass<$100

Invested

$20.04

Value

$20.81

PnL

+$0.78

Record

67%

20-10 (30)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$20.24

Value

$20.18

PnL

-$0.06

Record

50%

780-769 (1549)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$16.71

Value

$16.73

PnL

+$0.02

Record

46%

1157-1347 (2504)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$15.94

Value

$15.89

PnL

-$0.05

Record

25%

730-2139 (2869)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$13.18

Value

$13.19

PnL

+$0.01

Record

58%

787-561 (1348)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$3.98

Value

$3.97

PnL

-$0.01

Record

58%

765-561 (1326)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.64

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.62

Record

42%

2644-3715 (6359)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 15 top traders (93%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.