Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (68%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on November 12?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 32¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12

Yes68¢No32¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$188.85

Smart Money Entry

56.9¢ → 32.3¢

-43% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 32%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 68%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes68%

No32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$164.41

Total Shares274

Combined PnL+$194.35

No6 traders

Total Value$170.96

Total Shares305

Combined PnL-$5.5

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452ARB<$100	Noavg 94.1¢	$3.4K	$1.5K	$-1.5K	67% 105-51 (156)
└ No leg	Noavg 94.1¢	$2.6K	$893.28	$-1.9K
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 43.1¢	$370.56	$581.9	+$345.5
0X 0xDB5ARB<$100	Noavg 93.1¢	$475.75	$423.36	+$68.9	74% 75-26 (101)
└ No leg	Noavg 93.1¢	$300.74	$253.42	-$46.23
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 8.4¢	$66.13	$169.94	+$115.14
SU suntori	Yesavg 5.6¢	$17.57	$156.85	+$194.25	47% 1547-1731 (3278)
0X 0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616CTR	Noavg 58.6¢	$154.37	$147.14	-$7.23	53% 16-14 (30)
balthazar<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.73	$5.4	+$2.67	47% 4825-5515 (10340)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 49.9¢	$5.06	$5.35	+$0.29	47% 544-625 (1169)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 49.9¢	$5.04	$5.34	+$0.29	48% 510-557 (1067)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Noavg 49.9¢	$5.01	$5.3	+$0.29	62% 473-292 (765)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 40.3¢	$4.4	$5.1	+$0.7	47% 524-596 (1120)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 49.9¢	$2.57	$2.72	+$0.15	45% 521-645 (1166)
E4 e46m3<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8.75	$2.17	-$2.57	43% 2575-3401 (5976)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452ARB<$100

Invested

$3,436.44

Value

$1.5K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

67%

105-51 (156)

Both legs:

No$2,602.594.1¢$-1.9K

Yes$370.5643.1¢+$345.5

0xDB5ARB<$100

Invested

$475.75

Value

$423.36

PnL

+$68.9

Record

74%

75-26 (101)

Both legs:

No$300.7493.1¢-$46.23

Yes$66.138.4¢+$115.14

suntori

Yes

Invested

$17.57

Value

$156.85

PnL

+$194.25

Record

47%

1547-1731 (3278)

0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616CTR

Invested

$154.37

Value

$147.14

PnL

-$7.23

Record

53%

16-14 (30)

balthazar<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.73

Value

$5.4

PnL

+$2.67

Record

47%

4825-5515 (10340)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$5.06

Value

$5.35

PnL

+$0.29

Record

47%

544-625 (1169)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$5.04

Value

$5.34

PnL

+$0.29

Record

48%

510-557 (1067)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Invested

$5.01

Value

$5.3

PnL

+$0.29

Record

62%

473-292 (765)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$4.4

Value

$5.1

PnL

+$0.7

Record

47%

524-596 (1120)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$2.57

Value

$2.72

PnL

+$0.15

Record

45%

521-645 (1166)

e46m3<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.75

Value

$2.17

PnL

-$2.57

Record

43%

2575-3401 (5976)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 32%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 68%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance34.9%

32.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.6¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$186.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

286.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.