Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on November 15?

11 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (85%) · No at 99¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 85%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$608.16

Smart Money Entry

81.2¢ → 98.6¢

+21% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,615

Combined PnL+$889.53

Yes2 traders

Total Value$2.98

Total Shares157

Combined PnL-$281.36

No — 85%Yes — 15%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 76.1¢	$3.0K	$1.1K	+$989.89	69% 206-92 (298)
0X 0xDB5	Noavg 87.1¢	$545.24	$248.57	-$98.71	72% 137-54 (191)
EA Eager47259	Noavg 91.2¢	$119.49	$52.26	-$2.81	48% 204-219 (423)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$49.26	$49.19	-$0.07	32% 281-585 (866)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$39.16	$39.44	+$0.28	33% 309-636 (945)
HO Hourglass<$100	Noavg 95.1¢	$28.54	$29.58	+$1.04	67% 20-10 (30)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$25.07	$25.05	-$0.02	49% 816-837 (1653)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$20.1	$20.05	-$0.05	58% 765-561 (1326)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$16.58	$16.55	-$0.03	51% 867-820 (1687)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$15.78	$15.78	+$0.01	25% 730-2139 (2869)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$13.04	$13.04	+$0	52% 830-759 (1589)
TO TokorCTR	Yesavg 53.9¢	$993.31	$2.35	-$288.32	52% 135-126 (261)
balthazarCTR	Yesavg 9.1¢	$288.73	$0.62	+$6.96	43% 5129-6814 (11943)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$3,029.25

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$989.89

Record

69%

206-92 (298)

0xDB5

Invested

$545.24

Value

$248.57

PnL

-$98.71

Record

72%

137-54 (191)

Eager47259

Invested

$119.49

Value

$52.26

PnL

-$2.81

Record

48%

204-219 (423)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$49.26

Value

$49.19

PnL

-$0.07

Record

32%

281-585 (866)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$39.16

Value

$39.44

PnL

+$0.28

Record

33%

309-636 (945)

Hourglass<$100

Invested

$28.54

Value

$29.58

PnL

+$1.04

Record

67%

20-10 (30)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$25.07

Value

$25.05

PnL

-$0.02

Record

49%

816-837 (1653)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$20.1

Value

$20.05

PnL

-$0.05

Record

58%

765-561 (1326)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$16.58

Value

$16.55

PnL

-$0.03

Record

51%

867-820 (1687)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$15.78

Value

$15.78

PnL

+$0.01

Record

25%

730-2139 (2869)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$13.04

Value

$13.04

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

830-759 (1589)

TokorCTR

Yes

Invested

$993.31

Value

$2.35

PnL

-$288.32

Record

52%

135-126 (261)

balthazarCTR

Yes

Invested

$288.73

Value

$0.62

PnL

+$6.96

Record

43%

5129-6814 (11943)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.42

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.