Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on November 14?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 87¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 14

Yes13¢No87¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$2.7K

Smart Money Entry

59.6¢ → 87.4¢

+47% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes13%

No87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares3,484

Combined PnL+$2.8K

Yes3 traders

Total Value$210.08

Total Shares891

Combined PnL-$43.2

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 47.1¢	$5.5K	$1.6K	+$2.5K	69% 174-79 (253)
0X 0xDB5	Noavg 71.2¢	$2.0K	$878.55	+$325.98	73% 119-45 (164)
0X 0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616	Noavg 80.9¢	$414.2	$395.38	-$18.82	58% 34-25 (59)
balthazarCTR	Yesavg 28.9¢	$231.61	$166.5	-$65.11	44% 5036-6461 (11497)
TO Tokor	Noavg 82.1¢	$242.24	$80.1	-$35.61	53% 125-112 (237)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 61.8¢	$25	$32.04	+$7.04	51% 742-710 (1452)
HO HourglassCTR<$100	Yesavg 80.1¢	$14.39	$26.93	+$12.54	— 10-4 (14)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.27	$16.64	+$9.37	46% 1071-1282 (2353)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 85.7¢	$6.08	$5.62	-$0.46	49% 731-768 (1499)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 61.9¢	$3	$3.84	+$0.84	58% 679-500 (1179)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$5,545.52

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$2.5K

Record

69%

174-79 (253)

0xDB5

Invested

$2,013.93

Value

$878.55

PnL

+$325.98

Record

73%

119-45 (164)

0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616

Invested

$414.2

Value

$395.38

PnL

-$18.82

Record

58%

34-25 (59)

balthazarCTR

Yes

Invested

$231.61

Value

$166.5

PnL

-$65.11

Record

44%

5036-6461 (11497)

Tokor

Invested

$242.24

Value

$80.1

PnL

-$35.61

Record

53%

125-112 (237)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$25

Value

$32.04

PnL

+$7.04

Record

51%

742-710 (1452)

HourglassCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.39

Value

$26.93

PnL

+$12.54

Record

—

10-4 (14)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.27

Value

$16.64

PnL

+$9.37

Record

46%

1071-1282 (2353)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$6.08

Value

$5.62

PnL

-$0.46

Record

49%

731-768 (1499)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

Value

$3.84

PnL

+$0.84

Record

58%

679-500 (1179)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.1%

87.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.