Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on November 15?

9 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 93¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 64%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Entry

70.7¢ → 93¢

+32% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 14 top traders (64%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,667

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Yes5 traders

Total Value$113.73

Total Shares775

Combined PnL-$115.86

No — 64%Yes — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 63¢	$3.8K	$1.0K	+$1.5K	69% 206-92 (298)
0X 0xDB5	Noavg 86.1¢	$1.1K	$383.72	-$143.67	72% 137-54 (191)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$34.29	$54.25	+$26.75	43% 5129-6814 (11943)
TO TokorCTR	Yesavg 51.9¢	$421.79	$33.02	-$140.13	52% 135-126 (261)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 90.6¢	$40.61	$32.14	+$0.9	28% 3233-8195 (11428)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 93¢	$18.9	$18.92	+$0.02	49% 845-866 (1711)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 90.4¢	$18.29	$18.74	+$0.45	58% 787-561 (1348)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.6¢	$14.95	$14.74	-$0.21	46% 2830-3355 (6185)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 90.9¢	$15.25	$14.01	-$1.24	50% 780-769 (1549)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 90.9¢	$12.03	$11.05	-$0.98	61% 790-508 (1298)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 89.8¢	$10.78	$10.75	-$0.03	25% 730-2139 (2869)
BU Burkilota1CTR<$100	Yesavg 19.7¢	$8	$6.7	-$1.3	64% 188-106 (294)
0X 0x90d4B0aA65D33FEFC7F978688A803260A5A82DeE-1775326496677CTR<$100	Yesavg 19.7¢	$6	$5.03	-$0.97	56% 22-17 (39)
EA Eager47259<$100	Noavg 80¢	$52.34	$1.37	-$18.46	48% 204-219 (423)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$3,796.15

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

69%

206-92 (298)

0xDB5

Invested

$1,120.02

Value

$383.72

PnL

-$143.67

Record

72%

137-54 (191)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.29

Value

$54.25

PnL

+$26.75

Record

43%

5129-6814 (11943)

TokorCTR

Yes

Invested

$421.79

Value

$33.02

PnL

-$140.13

Record

52%

135-126 (261)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$40.61

Value

$32.14

PnL

+$0.9

Record

28%

3233-8195 (11428)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$18.9

Value

$18.92

PnL

+$0.02

Record

49%

845-866 (1711)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$18.29

Value

$18.74

PnL

+$0.45

Record

58%

787-561 (1348)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.95

Value

$14.74

PnL

-$0.21

Record

46%

2830-3355 (6185)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$15.25

Value

$14.01

PnL

-$1.24

Record

50%

780-769 (1549)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$12.03

Value

$11.05

PnL

-$0.98

Record

61%

790-508 (1298)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$10.78

Value

$10.75

PnL

-$0.03

Record

25%

730-2139 (2869)

Burkilota1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$6.7

PnL

-$1.3

Record

64%

188-106 (294)

0x90d4B0aA65D33FEFC7F978688A803260A5A82DeE-1775326496677CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$5.03

PnL

-$0.97

Record

56%

22-17 (39)

Eager47259<$100

Invested

$52.34

Value

$1.37

PnL

-$18.46

Record

48%

204-219 (423)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 14 top traders (64%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.4%

93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.