Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on November 14?

2 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (17%) · Yes at 62¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 14

Yes62¢No38¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 17%

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

$304.71

Smart Money Entry

42.6¢ → 62.4¢

+47% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 12 top traders (17%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes62%

No38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares3,545

Combined PnL+$717.35

No10 traders

Total Value$494.17

Total Shares1,406

Combined PnL-$412.65

Yes — 17%No — 83%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

18% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 82% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Yesavg 39.6¢	$4.2K	$1.9K	+$742.41	69% 174-79 (253)
0X 0xDB5	Yesavg 52.2¢	$2.7K	$552.84	-$25.06	73% 119-45 (164)
0X 0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616CTR	Noavg 51.6¢	$408.3	$290.61	-$117.69	58% 34-25 (59)
balthazarCTR	Noavg 91.2¢	$729.6	$131.44	-$234.07	44% 5036-6461 (11497)
HO HourglassCTR<$100	Noavg 88.6¢	$83.26	$30.93	-$52.34	— 10-4 (14)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 34.3¢	$11.23	$12.02	+$0.79	27% 667-1774 (2441)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Noavg 51.9¢	$13.51	$8.57	-$4.94	42% 2627-3655 (6282)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 37.8¢	$7.65	$6.67	-$0.99	51% 742-710 (1452)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 40.4¢	$5.3	$4.32	-$0.98	58% 699-503 (1202)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Noavg 42.3¢	$5.54	$4.31	-$1.23	63% 714-428 (1142)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 40.2¢	$3.25	$2.66	-$0.59	51% 782-754 (1536)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 40.5¢	$3.27	$2.66	-$0.61	49% 731-768 (1499)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Yes

Invested

$4,192.41

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$742.41

Record

69%

174-79 (253)

0xDB5

Yes

Invested

$2,738.84

Value

$552.84

PnL

-$25.06

Record

73%

119-45 (164)

0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616CTR

Invested

$408.3

Value

$290.61

PnL

-$117.69

Record

58%

34-25 (59)

balthazarCTR

Invested

$729.6

Value

$131.44

PnL

-$234.07

Record

44%

5036-6461 (11497)

HourglassCTR<$100

Invested

$83.26

Value

$30.93

PnL

-$52.34

Record

—

10-4 (14)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$11.23

Value

$12.02

PnL

+$0.79

Record

27%

667-1774 (2441)

e46m3CTR<$100

Invested

$13.51

Value

$8.57

PnL

-$4.94

Record

42%

2627-3655 (6282)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$7.65

Value

$6.67

PnL

-$0.99

Record

51%

742-710 (1452)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$5.3

Value

$4.32

PnL

-$0.98

Record

58%

699-503 (1202)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Invested

$5.54

Value

$4.31

PnL

-$1.23

Record

63%

714-428 (1142)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$3.25

Value

$2.66

PnL

-$0.59

Record

51%

782-754 (1536)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$3.27

Value

$2.66

PnL

-$0.61

Record

49%

731-768 (1499)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 62%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 12 top traders (17%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

18% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 82% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.0%

62.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.6¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$53.79

Max Loss

-$100.00

153.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.