Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 1.7¢ · $735 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$734.89
$3.92
1.6¢ → 1.7¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 2%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Late
653h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
5 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RO royalestakeCTR | Yesavg 1.6¢ | $334.95 | $354.63 | +$20.25 | 46% 375-435 (810) |
 TimeTravelerCTR | Yesavg 1.8¢ | $233.9 | $219.45 | -$14.26 | 42% 1963-2767 (4730) |
0X 0xf475402430f3dc9611abeea737fe69dd02f48486 | Noavg 98.3¢ | $150.4 | $150.48 | +$0.23 | 11% 20-163 (183) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.6¢ | $10.26 | $6.44 | -$3.83 | 45% 1852-2283 (4135) |
 CosmicCedarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $2.36 | $3.9 | +$1.54 | 60% 784-526 (1310) |
Invested
$334.95
Value
$354.63
PnL
+$20.25
Record
46%
375-435 (810)
TimeTravelerCTRInvested
$233.9
Value
$219.45
PnL
-$14.26
Record
42%
1963-2767 (4730)
Invested
$150.4
Value
$150.48
PnL
+$0.23
Record
11%
20-163 (183)
Invested
$10.26
Value
$6.44
PnL
-$3.83
Record
45%
1852-2283 (4135)
CosmicCedarCTR<$100Invested
$2.36
Value
$3.9
PnL
+$1.54
Record
60%
784-526 (1310)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
1.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.