Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Philadelphia Flyers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (88%) · Yes at 0.5¢ · $428 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
8
Yes 88%
$428.05
-$224.39
1.8¢ → 0.5¢
-69% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Late
825h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
11 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RO royalestakeCTR | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $255.78 | $262.5 | -$172.07 | 47% 411-461 (872) |
CI cigarettes | Noavg 99.2¢ | $178.55 | $119.34 | +$0.29 | 53% 23800-20961 (44761) |
RA rainbowliliesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.6¢ | $25.51 | $17.5 | -$8.01 | 39% 2908-4509 (7417) |
 CosmicCedarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $7.35 | $12.86 | -$3.31 | 51% 1101-1076 (2177) |
 probabilityCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.9¢ | $10.18 | $6.14 | -$7.3 | 40% 1583-2384 (3967) |
ME MenacingTurtleCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.6¢ | $25.33 | $5.35 | -$19.98 | 58% 296-217 (513) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.6¢ | $15.77 | $3.3 | -$12.47 | 55% 3185-2637 (5822) |
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $2.59 | $1.06 | -$1.54 | 28% 579-1489 (2068) |
Invested
$255.78
Value
$262.5
PnL
-$172.07
Record
47%
411-461 (872)
Invested
$178.55
Value
$119.34
PnL
+$0.29
Record
53%
23800-20961 (44761)
Invested
$25.51
Value
$17.5
PnL
-$8.01
Record
39%
2908-4509 (7417)
CosmicCedarCTR<$100Invested
$7.35
Value
$12.86
PnL
-$3.31
Record
51%
1101-1076 (2177)
probabilityCTR<$100Invested
$10.18
Value
$6.14
PnL
-$7.3
Record
40%
1583-2384 (3967)
Invested
$25.33
Value
$5.35
PnL
-$19.98
Record
58%
296-217 (513)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100Invested
$15.77
Value
$3.3
PnL
-$12.47
Record
55%
3185-2637 (5822)
Invested
$2.59
Value
$1.06
PnL
-$1.54
Record
28%
579-1489 (2068)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.