Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (96%). 1 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Philadelphia Eagles have more than 8.5 wins during the 2026 NFL season?
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 3.9¢ · $451 held · ends Feb 16, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
3
Yes 33%
$451.49
-$757.93
Research grade
AvoidYes at 4%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x53eCc53E7 | Noavg 78.9¢ | $247.26 | $291.08 | +$43.82 | 43% 469-622 (1091) |
AB ABC12345654321 | Noavg 93.9¢ | $583.93 | $101.55 | +$16.23 | 50% 1694-1680 (3374) |
 JustADonkCTR | Yesavg 60¢ | $933 | $58.86 | -$817.98 | 55% 913-754 (1667) |
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
3.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.