Will the People’s Bank of China increase rates by December 31?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 99¢ · $252 held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$252
$0.11
99.4¢ → 99.3¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Haradwaith | Noavg 99.3¢ | $185.59 | $181.54 | +$0.93 | — 8-9 (17) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $39.92 | $39.92 | +$0 | 52% 5324-4829 (10153) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $19.97 | $19.96 | -$0.01 | 28% 2449-6153 (8602) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $10.38 | $10.38 | +$0 | 28% 827-2133 (2960) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $1.02 | $0.2 | -$0.82 | 23% 80-263 (343) |
HaradwaithInvested
$185.59
Value
$181.54
PnL
+$0.93
Record
—
8-9 (17)
Invested
$39.92
Value
$39.92
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
5324-4829 (10153)
Invested
$19.97
Value
$19.96
PnL
-$0.01
Record
28%
2449-6153 (8602)
Invested
$10.38
Value
$10.38
PnL
+$0
Record
28%
827-2133 (2960)
Invested
$1.02
Value
$0.2
PnL
-$0.82
Record
23%
80-263 (343)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.