Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (97%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Ottawa Senators be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 3.2¢ · $401 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$400.55
$31.9
2.9¢ → 3.2¢
+9% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 3%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 97%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Late
683h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 TimeTravelerCTR | Yesavg 3¢ | $210.4 | $230.53 | +$16.75 | 41% 1964-2771 (4735) |
LE leegunnerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $73.03 | $76.56 | +$2.36 | 41% 1279-1824 (3103) |
RO royalestakeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $61.27 | $72.64 | +$10.25 | 47% 380-437 (817) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $16.25 | $16.25 | +$0 | 57% 3057-2321 (5378) |
 CosmicCedarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $1.96 | $4.57 | +$2.54 | 60% 788-527 (1315) |
TimeTravelerCTRInvested
$210.4
Value
$230.53
PnL
+$16.75
Record
41%
1964-2771 (4735)
Invested
$73.03
Value
$76.56
PnL
+$2.36
Record
41%
1279-1824 (3103)
Invested
$61.27
Value
$72.64
PnL
+$10.25
Record
47%
380-437 (817)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100Invested
$16.25
Value
$16.25
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
3057-2321 (5378)
CosmicCedarCTR<$100Invested
$1.96
Value
$4.57
PnL
+$2.54
Record
60%
788-527 (1315)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
3.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.