Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (78%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $6.50 and $7.00 on December 31, 2026?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 22¢ · $396 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
3
Yes 67%
$395.97
$206.6
13.4¢ → 22.4¢
+67% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 22%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 YoungAlphaGoatCTR | Yesavg 15.4¢ | $294.38 | $299.34 | +$161.98 | 44% 393-491 (884) |
 GenaTheBondKilIerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $4.57 | $54.55 | +$49.08 | 51% 540-527 (1067) |
SP SPLPB<$100 | Noavg 84.6¢ | $46.53 | $42.08 | -$4.46 | 24% 692-2171 (2863) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
22.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.