Will the Ornn H100 Index be at least $3.00 on October 31, 2026?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 73¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 25%
1 arb excluded
$2.0K
-$49.52
Research grade
NeutralNo at 73%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-8 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
133h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
25% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 GenaTheBondKilIerARB<$100 | Noavg 57.2¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | +$58.37 | 51% 517-504 (1021) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 57.2¢ | $1.0K | $1.3K | +$275.98 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 37.8¢ | $761.19 | $543.59 | -$217.61 | |
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Noavg 81¢ | $149.68 | $134.9 | -$15.71 | 53% 1110-993 (2103) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 37.4¢ | $60.72 | $42.16 | -$18.56 | 32% 4361-9392 (13753) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 37.8¢ | $45.11 | $30.24 | -$14.87 | 18% 3784-17134 (20918) |
LI lissartterCTR<$100 | Yesavg 30¢ | $20.24 | $9.13 | -$0.37 | 42% 5201-7128 (12329) |
GenaTheBondKilIerARB<$100Invested
$1,761.34
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$58.37
Record
51%
517-504 (1021)
Both legs:
Invested
$149.68
Value
$134.9
PnL
-$15.71
Record
53%
1110-993 (2103)
Invested
$60.72
Value
$42.16
PnL
-$18.56
Record
32%
4361-9392 (13753)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$45.11
Value
$30.24
PnL
-$14.87
Record
18%
3784-17134 (20918)
Invested
$20.24
Value
$9.13
PnL
-$0.37
Record
42%
5201-7128 (12329)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.