Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.50 and $7.00 on December 31, 2026?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 93¢ · $512 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$511.63

Combined PnL

$11.94

Smart Money Entry

86.2¢ → 93.1¢

+8% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$496.47

Total Shares491

Combined PnL+$20.11

Yes2 traders

Total Value$15.16

Total Shares257

Combined PnL-$8.18

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Late

552h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 90.3¢	$251.86	$241.89	-$9.97	35% 18692-34699 (53391)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 61.9¢	$59.4	$90.34	+$30.94	49% 8939-9446 (18385)
VA Vale54holi<$100	Noavg 94.6¢	$56.4	$56.08	-$0.32	33% 320-641 (961)
ZE zerone777<$100	Noavg 94.9¢	$47.45	$47.05	-$0.4	39% 562-865 (1427)
PO pollo07<$100	Noavg 94.7¢	$35.51	$35.29	-$0.23	33% 470-950 (1420)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 92.6¢	$18.51	$18.81	+$0.3	20% 2639-10442 (13081)
GenaTheBondKilIerCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.4¢	$23.23	$15.1	-$8.13	51% 542-530 (1072)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 92¢	$7.22	$7	-$0.22	27% 6972-19073 (26045)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Yes	$0.07	$0.07	-$0.05	42% 7119-9911 (17030)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$251.86

Value

$241.89

PnL

-$9.97

Record

35%

18692-34699 (53391)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$59.4

Value

$90.34

PnL

+$30.94

Record

49%

8939-9446 (18385)

Vale54holi<$100

Invested

$56.4

Value

$56.08

PnL

-$0.32

Record

33%

320-641 (961)

zerone777<$100

Invested

$47.45

Value

$47.05

PnL

-$0.4

Record

39%

562-865 (1427)

pollo07<$100

Invested

$35.51

Value

$35.29

PnL

-$0.23

Record

33%

470-950 (1420)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$18.51

Value

$18.81

PnL

+$0.3

Record

20%

2639-10442 (13081)

GenaTheBondKilIerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.23

Value

$15.1

PnL

-$8.13

Record

51%

542-530 (1072)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$7.22

Value

PnL

-$0.22

Record

27%

6972-19073 (26045)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.07

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$0.05

Record

42%

7119-9911 (17030)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Late

552h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.3%

93.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.