Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (94%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.50 and $7.00 on December 31, 2026?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 6.2¢ · $56 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$56.46
-$14.93
Research grade
AvoidYes at 6%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 94%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Late
568h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
5 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.2¢ | $28.05 | $19.89 | -$10.96 | 48% 1352-1491 (2843) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 92.6¢ | $18.51 | $18.81 | +$0.3 | 19% 2872-12252 (15124) |
 GenaTheBondKilIerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.4¢ | $23.23 | $15.1 | -$8.13 | 51% 548-533 (1081) |
0X 0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616CTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $18.75 | $2.52 | -$0.46 | 45% 4439-5419 (9858) |
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100 | Yes | $0.07 | $0.07 | +$4.36 | 58% 15793-11495 (27288) |
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100 | Yes | $0.07 | $0.07 | -$0.05 | 38% 7285-11727 (19012) |
Invested
$28.05
Value
$19.89
PnL
-$10.96
Record
48%
1352-1491 (2843)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$18.51
Value
$18.81
PnL
+$0.3
Record
19%
2872-12252 (15124)
GenaTheBondKilIerCTR<$100Invested
$23.23
Value
$15.1
PnL
-$8.13
Record
51%
548-533 (1081)
Invested
$18.75
Value
$2.52
PnL
-$0.46
Record
45%
4439-5419 (9858)
Invested
$0.07
Value
$0.07
PnL
+$4.36
Record
58%
15793-11495 (27288)
Invested
$0.07
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$0.05
Record
38%
7285-11727 (19012)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
6.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.