Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $6.50 on December 31, 2026?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 93¢ · $992 held · ends Dec 31

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$991.55

Combined PnL

$143.82

Smart Money Entry

82.7¢ → 92.9¢

+12% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$929.24

Total Shares979

Combined PnL+$184.16

Yes2 traders

Total Value$4.27

Total Shares74

Combined PnL-$40.35

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

812h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

8 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnapElectionAvoider	Noavg 82.1¢	$1.0K	$495.79	+$136.46	48% 1326-1419 (2745)
SM smallreceipt	Noavg 67.2¢	$122.33	$171.44	+$49.11	49% 8939-9446 (18385)
Istaroth	Noavg 95.9¢	$120.75	$116.44	-$2.33	14% 503-3033 (3536)
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 82¢	$60.68	$58.04	-$2.65	35% 18692-34699 (53391)
└ No leg	Noavg 82¢	$32.8	$37.68	+$4.88
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 7.9¢	$27.88	$20.36	-$7.53
VA Vale54holi<$100	Noavg 93.5¢	$55.71	$56.14	+$0.43	33% 320-641 (961)
ZE zerone777<$100	Noavg 93¢	$46.5	$47.1	+$0.6	39% 562-865 (1427)
PO pollo07<$100	Noavg 93¢	$34.88	$35.32	+$0.45	33% 470-950 (1420)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 97¢	$7.57	$7	-$0.57	27% 6972-19073 (26045)
GenaTheBondKilIerCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.9¢	$3.24	$4.18	+$0.94	51% 542-530 (1072)
LornaPredictsCTR	Yesavg 7¢	$132.62	$0.1	-$41.29	20% 2639-10442 (13081)

SnapElectionAvoider

Invested

$1,000.11

Value

$495.79

PnL

+$136.46

Record

48%

1326-1419 (2745)

smallreceipt

Invested

$122.33

Value

$171.44

PnL

+$49.11

Record

49%

8939-9446 (18385)

Istaroth

Invested

$120.75

Value

$116.44

PnL

-$2.33

Record

14%

503-3033 (3536)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$60.68

Value

$58.04

PnL

-$2.65

Record

35%

18692-34699 (53391)

Both legs:

No$32.882¢+$4.88

Yes$27.887.9¢-$7.53

Vale54holi<$100

Invested

$55.71

Value

$56.14

PnL

+$0.43

Record

33%

320-641 (961)

zerone777<$100

Invested

$46.5

Value

$47.1

PnL

+$0.6

Record

39%

562-865 (1427)

pollo07<$100

Invested

$34.88

Value

$35.32

PnL

+$0.45

Record

33%

470-950 (1420)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$7.57

Value

PnL

-$0.57

Record

27%

6972-19073 (26045)

GenaTheBondKilIerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.24

Value

$4.18

PnL

+$0.94

Record

51%

542-530 (1072)

LornaPredictsCTR

Yes

Invested

$132.62

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$41.29

Record

20%

2639-10442 (13081)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

812h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

8 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.1%

92.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.