Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Meta by December 31?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 97¢ · $5K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$5.2K
$42.57
95.5¢ → 96.8¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 tetrase | Noavg 96.8¢ | $3.6K | $3.6K | -$3 | 60% 812-538 (1350) |
 Dr.mett | Noavg 92.5¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$46.49 | 86% 1401-233 (1634) |
 Talophex<$100 | Noavg 95.7¢ | $47.85 | $48.4 | +$0.68 | 91% 919-94 (1013) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.6¢ | $10.4 | $8.8 | -$1.6 | 56% 15334-11889 (27223) |
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.