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3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 97¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$3.3K
$21.39
96.5¢ → 97¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Late
369h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Contentious-Dinnerdate | Noavg 97.5¢ | $2.3K | $2.3K | -$12.44 | 50% 391-397 (788) |
ME melonmanm | Noavg 94¢ | $752 | $786 | +$24 | 65% 488-263 (751) |
LI lissartter | Noavg 93.1¢ | $128.38 | $132.44 | +$4.06 | 42% 5206-7139 (12345) |
 LornaPredictsCTR | Yesavg 2.5¢ | $1.1K | $32.1 | +$5.3 | 18% 525-2347 (2872) |
 PaddyAlphaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.4¢ | $23.42 | $23.89 | +$0.47 | 59% 981-676 (1657) |
Contentious-DinnerdateInvested
$2,300.35
Value
$2.3K
PnL
-$12.44
Record
50%
391-397 (788)
Invested
$752
Value
$786
PnL
+$24
Record
65%
488-263 (751)
Invested
$128.38
Value
$132.44
PnL
+$4.06
Record
42%
5206-7139 (12345)
LornaPredictsCTRInvested
$1,070
Value
$32.1
PnL
+$5.3
Record
18%
525-2347 (2872)
PaddyAlphaCTR<$100Invested
$23.42
Value
$23.89
PnL
+$0.47
Record
59%
981-676 (1657)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.