Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Anthropic by December 31?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 96¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$1.2K
$22.03
91.7¢ → 95.9¢
+5% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Dr.mett | Noavg 91.7¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$50.56 | 86% 1400-233 (1633) |
LI lissartterCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.6¢ | $54.02 | $27.12 | -$9.11 | 42% 5246-7177 (12423) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.7¢ | $37.46 | $16.83 | -$20.63 | 57% 13944-10725 (24669) |
 PaddyAlphaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $4.15 | $5.33 | +$1.18 | 59% 981-676 (1657) |
 tetrase<$100 | Noavg 95.6¢ | $5 | $4.81 | +$0.03 | 60% 806-538 (1344) |
Dr.mettInvested
$1,052.25
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$50.56
Record
86%
1400-233 (1633)
Invested
$54.02
Value
$27.12
PnL
-$9.11
Record
42%
5246-7177 (12423)
Invested
$37.46
Value
$16.83
PnL
-$20.63
Record
57%
13944-10725 (24669)
PaddyAlphaCTR<$100Invested
$4.15
Value
$5.33
PnL
+$1.18
Record
59%
981-676 (1657)
tetrase<$100Invested
$5
Value
$4.81
PnL
+$0.03
Record
60%
806-538 (1344)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.