Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 74¢ · $714 held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$714.31
$35.93
67.9¢ → 73.5¢
+8% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 74%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Late
527h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GR grinder1011 | Noavg 68.2¢ | $42.08 | $387.41 | +$18.22 | 37% 117-196 (313) |
 perfectnostalgiaCTR | Yesavg 27.6¢ | $140.07 | $139.53 | -$0.53 | 55% 339-275 (614) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 67¢ | $103.03 | $110.76 | +$7.74 | 53% 7538-6672 (14210) |
FI firegoldCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23¢ | $46 | $55 | +$9 | 59% 330-227 (557) |
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $20.4 | $21.6 | +$1.5 | 50% 1279-1291 (2570) |
Invested
$42.08
Value
$387.41
PnL
+$18.22
Record
37%
117-196 (313)
perfectnostalgiaCTRInvested
$140.07
Value
$139.53
PnL
-$0.53
Record
55%
339-275 (614)
Invested
$103.03
Value
$110.76
PnL
+$7.74
Record
53%
7538-6672 (14210)
Invested
$46
Value
$55
PnL
+$9
Record
59%
330-227 (557)
Invested
$20.4
Value
$21.6
PnL
+$1.5
Record
50%
1279-1291 (2570)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.