Will the November 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $268 held · ends Dec 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$268.32
-$0.58
99.3¢ → 98.9¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 61%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NO northdrawer | Noavg 99.6¢ | $104.59 | $103.85 | -$0.75 | 27% 912-2510 (3422) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $59.81 | $59.33 | -$0.48 | 50% 4577-4487 (9064) |
SH shiifoo<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $41.16 | $41.87 | +$0.71 | 63% 1313-787 (2100) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $33.45 | $33.6 | +$0.15 | 37% 3085-5357 (8442) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $19.92 | $19.78 | -$0.14 | 53% 5512-4919 (10431) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $9.97 | $9.89 | -$0.08 | 30% 2617-6186 (8803) |
Invested
$104.59
Value
$103.85
PnL
-$0.75
Record
27%
912-2510 (3422)
balthazar<$100Invested
$59.81
Value
$59.33
PnL
-$0.48
Record
50%
4577-4487 (9064)
Invested
$41.16
Value
$41.87
PnL
+$0.71
Record
63%
1313-787 (2100)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$33.45
Value
$33.6
PnL
+$0.15
Record
37%
3085-5357 (8442)
Invested
$19.92
Value
$19.78
PnL
-$0.14
Record
53%
5512-4919 (10431)
Invested
$9.97
Value
$9.89
PnL
-$0.08
Record
30%
2617-6186 (8803)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.