Will the November 2026 unemployment rate be 3.9%?
9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 97¢ · $271 held · ends Dec 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 100%
$271.46
-$2.42
98.3¢ → 97.5¢
-1% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 9 top traders (100%)8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
9 traders
Top 2 hold 53%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO god83743894 | Noavg 99¢ | $103.95 | $101.96 | -$2 | 11% 42-326 (368) |
SH shiifoo<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $39.9 | $41.58 | +$1.68 | 63% 1313-787 (2100) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 97.8¢ | $32.96 | $32.72 | -$0.24 | 37% 3085-5357 (8442) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $32.57 | $31.94 | -$0.63 | 50% 4577-4487 (9064) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $19.8 | $19.42 | -$0.38 | 27% 912-2510 (3422) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $19.8 | $19.42 | -$0.38 | 53% 5512-4919 (10431) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $12.67 | $12.43 | -$0.24 | 38% 1236-1990 (3226) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $9.9 | $9.71 | -$0.19 | 30% 2617-6186 (8803) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $2.33 | $2.28 | -$0.04 | 79% 286-77 (363) |
Invested
$103.95
Value
$101.96
PnL
-$2
Record
11%
42-326 (368)
Invested
$39.9
Value
$41.58
PnL
+$1.68
Record
63%
1313-787 (2100)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$32.96
Value
$32.72
PnL
-$0.24
Record
37%
3085-5357 (8442)
balthazar<$100Invested
$32.57
Value
$31.94
PnL
-$0.63
Record
50%
4577-4487 (9064)
Invested
$19.8
Value
$19.42
PnL
-$0.38
Record
27%
912-2510 (3422)
Invested
$19.8
Value
$19.42
PnL
-$0.38
Record
53%
5512-4919 (10431)
Invested
$12.67
Value
$12.43
PnL
-$0.24
Record
38%
1236-1990 (3226)
Invested
$9.9
Value
$9.71
PnL
-$0.19
Record
30%
2617-6186 (8803)
Invested
$2.33
Value
$2.28
PnL
-$0.04
Record
79%
286-77 (363)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.