Will the November 2026 unemployment rate be ≤3.8%?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $268 held · ends Dec 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$268.42
-$0.85
99.5¢ → 99¢
-1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 62%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QU quietparcel | Noavg 99.7¢ | $124.63 | $123.69 | -$0.94 | 18% 54-241 (295) |
SH shiifoo<$100 | Noavg 98.2¢ | $41.26 | $41.87 | +$0.61 | 63% 1313-787 (2100) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $33.6 | $33.6 | +$0 | 37% 3085-5357 (8442) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $32.8 | $32.55 | -$0.25 | 50% 4577-4487 (9064) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $27.02 | $26.82 | -$0.2 | 79% 286-77 (363) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $9.97 | $9.9 | -$0.08 | 30% 2617-6186 (8803) |
Invested
$124.63
Value
$123.69
PnL
-$0.94
Record
18%
54-241 (295)
Invested
$41.26
Value
$41.87
PnL
+$0.61
Record
63%
1313-787 (2100)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$33.6
Value
$33.6
PnL
+$0
Record
37%
3085-5357 (8442)
balthazar<$100Invested
$32.8
Value
$32.55
PnL
-$0.25
Record
50%
4577-4487 (9064)
Invested
$27.02
Value
$26.82
PnL
-$0.2
Record
79%
286-77 (363)
Invested
$9.97
Value
$9.9
PnL
-$0.08
Record
30%
2617-6186 (8803)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.