Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in Egypt by December 31, 2027?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $7 held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
8
Yes 100%
$6.69
-$90.4
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 56%
Freshness
Late
93h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0¢ | $0.02 | $1.94 | -$26.35 | 53% 12679-11239 (23918) |
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100 | Yes | $1.8 | $1.8 | -$24.38 | 46% 9471-11223 (20694) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $3.38 | $1.79 | -$24.31 | 71% 14055-5854 (19909) |
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0¢ | $0.08 | $0.81 | -$10.56 | 32% 3309-7174 (10483) |
LP lpgbCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.22 | $0.22 | -$3.01 | 27% 649-1738 (2387) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.03 | $0.09 | -$1.16 | 17% 1371-6656 (8027) |
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.03 | $0.03 | -$0.34 | 49% 6600-6959 (13559) |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100 | Yes | $0.02 | $0.02 | -$0.31 | 25% 509-1531 (2040) |
Invested
$0.02
Value
$1.94
PnL
-$26.35
Record
53%
12679-11239 (23918)
Invested
$1.8
Value
$1.8
PnL
-$24.38
Record
46%
9471-11223 (20694)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$3.38
Value
$1.79
PnL
-$24.31
Record
71%
14055-5854 (19909)
Invested
$0.08
Value
$0.81
PnL
-$10.56
Record
32%
3309-7174 (10483)
Invested
$0.22
Value
$0.22
PnL
-$3.01
Record
27%
649-1738 (2387)
Invested
$0.03
Value
$0.09
PnL
-$1.16
Record
17%
1371-6656 (8027)
Invested
$0.03
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$0.34
Record
49%
6600-6959 (13559)
Invested
$0.02
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$0.31
Record
25%
509-1531 (2040)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.