Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 10 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in Belarus by December 31, 2027?

10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $14 held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$13.67

Combined PnL

-$11.08

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$13.67

Total Shares3,904

Combined PnL-$11.08

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Late

58h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.87	$4.86	+$3.99	52% 30941-28990 (59931)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.19	$4.03	+$3.84	67% 27520-13840 (41360)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$3.38	$2.38	-$0.96	72% 13881-5445 (19326)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0	$1.35	-$13.11	43% 8771-11417 (20188)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Yes	$0.42	$0.42	-$4.08	38% 7315-11745 (19060)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Yes	$27.73	$0.21	-$1.77	36% 5924-10652 (16576)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.08	$0.19	+$0.38	31% 3260-7122 (10382)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.02	$0.13	+$0.95	54% 12513-10832 (23345)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.05	$0.06	+$0.01	17% 4501-22033 (26534)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yes	$0.04	$0.04	-$0.34	49% 6566-6933 (13499)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.87

Value

$4.86

PnL

+$3.99

Record

52%

30941-28990 (59931)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.19

Value

$4.03

PnL

+$3.84

Record

67%

27520-13840 (41360)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.38

Value

$2.38

PnL

-$0.96

Record

72%

13881-5445 (19326)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$1.35

PnL

-$13.11

Record

43%

8771-11417 (20188)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.42

Value

$0.42

PnL

-$4.08

Record

38%

7315-11745 (19060)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.73

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$1.77

Record

36%

5924-10652 (16576)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.08

Value

$0.19

PnL

+$0.38

Record

31%

3260-7122 (10382)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.13

PnL

+$0.95

Record

54%

12513-10832 (23345)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.05

Value

$0.06

PnL

+$0.01

Record

17%

4501-22033 (26534)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.34

Record

49%

6566-6933 (13499)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Late

58h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9423.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

9523.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.