Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in another country by December 31, 2027?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $10 held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
8
Yes 100%
$10
-$86.66
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 60%
Freshness
Late
75h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
4 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0¢ | $0.02 | $3.1 | -$26.35 | 53% 12604-11065 (23669) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $3.38 | $2.89 | -$24.57 | 71% 13984-5672 (19656) |
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100 | Yes | $2.72 | $2.72 | -$23.02 | 46% 9444-11174 (20618) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.4¢ | $5.8 | $0.56 | -$6.94 | 17% 4509-22111 (26620) |
LP lpgbCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.35 | $0.35 | -$3.01 | 27% 621-1686 (2307) |
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0¢ | $0.08 | $0.3 | -$2.13 | 32% 3291-7156 (10447) |
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.04 | $0.04 | -$0.34 | 49% 6592-6945 (13537) |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100 | Yes | $0.04 | $0.04 | -$0.31 | 25% 486-1480 (1966) |
Invested
$0.02
Value
$3.1
PnL
-$26.35
Record
53%
12604-11065 (23669)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$3.38
Value
$2.89
PnL
-$24.57
Record
71%
13984-5672 (19656)
Invested
$2.72
Value
$2.72
PnL
-$23.02
Record
46%
9444-11174 (20618)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$5.8
Value
$0.56
PnL
-$6.94
Record
17%
4509-22111 (26620)
Invested
$0.35
Value
$0.35
PnL
-$3.01
Record
27%
621-1686 (2307)
Invested
$0.08
Value
$0.3
PnL
-$2.13
Record
32%
3291-7156 (10447)
Invested
$0.04
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$0.34
Record
49%
6592-6945 (13537)
Invested
$0.04
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$0.31
Record
25%
486-1480 (1966)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.