Will the next Qwen Max model (3.9+) be released on November 20, 2026?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $881 held · ends Nov 21
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$880.76
$2.12
99.7¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar | Noavg 99.7¢ | $388.83 | $389.61 | +$0.78 | 51% 4598-4501 (9099) |
DO donthackme | Noavg 99.8¢ | $291 | $291.35 | +$0.35 | 75% 27-9 (36) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $59.34 | $59.94 | +$0.6 | 12% 52-372 (424) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $49.94 | $49.95 | +$0.01 | 30% 2654-6198 (8852) |
BI Bigggggggg<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $42.92 | $42.96 | +$0.03 | 53% 1602-1414 (3016) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 98.6¢ | $25.63 | $25.97 | +$0.34 | 29% 870-2138 (3008) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $20.98 | $20.98 | +$0 | 78% 314-87 (401) |
balthazarInvested
$388.83
Value
$389.61
PnL
+$0.78
Record
51%
4598-4501 (9099)
Invested
$291
Value
$291.35
PnL
+$0.35
Record
75%
27-9 (36)
Invested
$59.34
Value
$59.94
PnL
+$0.6
Record
12%
52-372 (424)
Invested
$49.94
Value
$49.95
PnL
+$0.01
Record
30%
2654-6198 (8852)
Invested
$42.92
Value
$42.96
PnL
+$0.03
Record
53%
1602-1414 (3016)
Invested
$25.63
Value
$25.97
PnL
+$0.34
Record
29%
870-2138 (3008)
Invested
$20.98
Value
$20.98
PnL
+$0
Record
78%
314-87 (401)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.