Will the next Qwen Max model (3.9+) be released on November 16, 2026?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $296 held · ends Nov 17
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$295.94
$2.24
99.1¢ → 99.7¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SM smallreceipt | Noavg 99¢ | $153.45 | $154.85 | +$1.4 | 12% 49-371 (420) |
 balthazar | Noavg 99¢ | $100.08 | $100.99 | +$0.91 | 50% 4584-4495 (9079) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.93 | -$0.04 | 27% 917-2511 (3428) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $9.99 | $9.98 | -$0.01 | 30% 2638-6194 (8832) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $0.2 | $0.2 | +$0 | 50% 23-23 (46) |
Invested
$153.45
Value
$154.85
PnL
+$1.4
Record
12%
49-371 (420)
balthazarInvested
$100.08
Value
$100.99
PnL
+$0.91
Record
50%
4584-4495 (9079)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.93
PnL
-$0.04
Record
27%
917-2511 (3428)
Invested
$9.99
Value
$9.98
PnL
-$0.01
Record
30%
2638-6194 (8832)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$0.2
Value
$0.2
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
23-23 (46)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.