Will the next Qwen Max model (3.9+) be released on November 15, 2026?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $694 held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$694.31
$3.37
99.4¢ → 99.7¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar | Noavg 99.5¢ | $437.01 | $438.56 | +$1.55 | 51% 4598-4501 (9099) |
GO god83743894 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $123.54 | $124.88 | +$1.33 | 14% 55-329 (384) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $49.95 | $49.95 | +$0 | 30% 2654-6198 (8852) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 98.3¢ | $29.49 | $29.97 | +$0.48 | 27% 921-2513 (3434) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.97 | +$0 | 40% 1439-2157 (3596) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $20.98 | $20.98 | +$0 | 78% 314-87 (401) |
balthazarInvested
$437.01
Value
$438.56
PnL
+$1.55
Record
51%
4598-4501 (9099)
Invested
$123.54
Value
$124.88
PnL
+$1.33
Record
14%
55-329 (384)
Invested
$49.95
Value
$49.95
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
2654-6198 (8852)
Invested
$29.49
Value
$29.97
PnL
+$0.48
Record
27%
921-2513 (3434)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.97
PnL
+$0
Record
40%
1439-2157 (3596)
Invested
$20.98
Value
$20.98
PnL
+$0
Record
78%
314-87 (401)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.