Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on November 8, 2026?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 2.0¢ · $15 held · ends Nov 9
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 100%
$15.3
-$5.77
Research grade
AvoidYes at 2%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 HaradwaithCTR | Yesavg 2.9¢ | $193.76 | $12.74 | -$4.02 | 40% 6684-10176 (16860) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.9¢ | $2.34 | $1.6 | -$0.74 | 19% 2981-12794 (15775) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.1¢ | $1.15 | $0.56 | -$0.59 | 22% 1839-6343 (8182) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.1¢ | $0.82 | $0.4 | -$0.42 | 16% 1392-7374 (8766) |
HaradwaithCTRInvested
$193.76
Value
$12.74
PnL
-$4.02
Record
40%
6684-10176 (16860)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$2.34
Value
$1.6
PnL
-$0.74
Record
19%
2981-12794 (15775)
Invested
$1.15
Value
$0.56
PnL
-$0.59
Record
22%
1839-6343 (8182)
Invested
$0.82
Value
$0.4
PnL
-$0.42
Record
16%
1392-7374 (8766)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
2.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.