Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + L?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $2 held · ends Aug 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Aug 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$1.64

Combined PnL

-$111.1

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$1.64

Total Shares2,765

Combined PnL-$111.1

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Late

157h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DR DreamwireCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.6¢	$54.5	$0.75	-$53.75	80% 4472-1139 (5611)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.8¢	$0.39	$0.36	-$34.02	55% 25593-21267 (46860)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.3¢	$3.51	$0.27	-$12.88	55% 42191-34106 (76297)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$2.44	$0.09	-$2.44	15% 5011-29434 (34445)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$0.53	$0.07	-$3.14	16% 1419-7677 (9096)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$1.17	$0.06	-$3.02	25% 697-2085 (2782)
VA vamosgamingCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.8¢	$1.19	$0.01	-$1.18	17% 246-1180 (1426)
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$0.53	$0.01	-$0.52	31% 2585-5634 (8219)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.8¢	$0.15	$0	-$0.15	37% 335-563 (898)

DreamwireCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.5

Value

$0.75

PnL

-$53.75

Record

80%

4472-1139 (5611)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.39

Value

$0.36

PnL

-$34.02

Record

55%

25593-21267 (46860)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.51

Value

$0.27

PnL

-$12.88

Record

55%

42191-34106 (76297)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.44

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$2.44

Record

15%

5011-29434 (34445)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.53

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$3.14

Record

16%

1419-7677 (9096)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.17

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$3.02

Record

25%

697-2085 (2782)

vamosgamingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.19

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.18

Record

17%

246-1180 (1426)

JordanMooneyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.53

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.52

Record

31%

2585-5634 (8219)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.15

Value

PnL

-$0.15

Record

37%

335-563 (898)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Late

157h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.