Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + C?

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 94¢ · $812 held · ends Aug 1, 2027

Yes6¢No94¢Ends Sun, Aug 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$812.37

Combined PnL

$114.36

Smart Money Entry

88.8¢ → 94.1¢

+6% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$794.48

Total Shares839

Combined PnL+$122.06

Yes4 traders

Total Value$17.88

Total Shares331

Combined PnL-$7.7

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+16 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 42%

Freshness

Late

797h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 42% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 69% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HA haveagoodday	Noavg 87.6¢	$170	$178.97	+$8.97	47% 3792-4260 (8052)
2B9S	Noavg 85.2¢	$185.85	$155.75	-$30.09	17% 4487-21969 (26456)
GR graynotebook19	Noavg 92.9¢	$123.51	$122.69	-$0.82	58% 15784-11478 (27262)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 87¢	$84.37	$89.48	+$5.12	58% 16798-12127 (28925)
Haradwaith	Noavg 89.4¢	$503.92	$74.39	+$88.54	40% 6503-9752 (16255)
SM smallreceipt	Noavg 92.2¢	$152.99	$47.97	+$47.08	46% 9372-11125 (20497)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 90.4¢	$44.25	$45.17	+$0.92	53% 23469-20698 (44167)
Lucerys	Noavg 90.8¢	$130.88	$44.99	+$1.22	73% 13760-5199 (18959)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 90¢	$27.01	$27.68	+$0.7	47% 10328-11796 (22124)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.4¢	$16.31	$12.08	-$4.23	52% 30788-28931 (59719)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 87¢	$6.96	$7.38	+$0.42	43% 10588-14062 (24650)
Tenebrus7CTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$9	$3.54	-$5.46	73% 3011-1098 (4109)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.6¢	$2.22	$2.1	-$0.12	53% 8526-7603 (16129)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$1.17	$0.16	+$2.1	26% 554-1607 (2161)

haveagoodday

Invested

$170

Value

$178.97

PnL

+$8.97

Record

47%

3792-4260 (8052)

2B9S

Invested

$185.85

Value

$155.75

PnL

-$30.09

Record

17%

4487-21969 (26456)

graynotebook19

Invested

$123.51

Value

$122.69

PnL

-$0.82

Record

58%

15784-11478 (27262)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$84.37

Value

$89.48

PnL

+$5.12

Record

58%

16798-12127 (28925)

Haradwaith

Invested

$503.92

Value

$74.39

PnL

+$88.54

Record

40%

6503-9752 (16255)

smallreceipt

Invested

$152.99

Value

$47.97

PnL

+$47.08

Record

46%

9372-11125 (20497)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$44.25

Value

$45.17

PnL

+$0.92

Record

53%

23469-20698 (44167)

Lucerys

Invested

$130.88

Value

$44.99

PnL

+$1.22

Record

73%

13760-5199 (18959)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$27.01

Value

$27.68

PnL

+$0.7

Record

47%

10328-11796 (22124)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.31

Value

$12.08

PnL

-$4.23

Record

52%

30788-28931 (59719)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$6.96

Value

$7.38

PnL

+$0.42

Record

43%

10588-14062 (24650)

Tenebrus7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$3.54

PnL

-$5.46

Record

73%

3011-1098 (4109)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.22

Value

$2.1

PnL

-$0.12

Record

53%

8526-7603 (16129)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.17

Value

$0.16

PnL

+$2.1

Record

26%

554-1607 (2161)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+16 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 42%

Freshness

Late

797h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 42% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 69% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.3%

94.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.