Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + C + V?

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1 held · ends Aug 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Aug 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$1.21

Combined PnL

-$114.29

Smart Money Entry

4.8¢ → 0.1¢

-99% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$1.21

Total Shares2,420

Combined PnL-$114.29

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.8¢	$33.59	$0.35	-$33.24	61% 13846-8705 (22551)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.8¢	$25.19	$0.26	-$24.93	92% 8583-746 (9329)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.8¢	$23.74	$0.25	-$23.49	60% 7177-4733 (11910)
DR DreamwireCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.9¢	$17.31	$0.18	-$17.13	83% 2825-559 (3384)
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.8¢	$5.52	$0.06	-$5.47	55% 5873-4760 (10633)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.8¢	$5.36	$0.06	-$5.3	30% 2186-5024 (7210)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.8¢	$3.9	$0.04	-$3.86	31% 1406-3191 (4597)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.8¢	$0.89	$0.01	-$0.88	55% 6022-5005 (11027)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.59

Value

$0.35

PnL

-$33.24

Record

61%

13846-8705 (22551)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.19

Value

$0.26

PnL

-$24.93

Record

92%

8583-746 (9329)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.74

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$23.49

Record

60%

7177-4733 (11910)

DreamwireCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.31

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$17.13

Record

83%

2825-559 (3384)

0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.52

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$5.47

Record

55%

5873-4760 (10633)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.36

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$5.3

Record

30%

2186-5024 (7210)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.9

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$3.86

Record

31%

1406-3191 (4597)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.89

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.88

Record

55%

6022-5005 (11027)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.